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Friday, November 11, 2022

Federal election 2022 live: Coalition minister admits ‘bump’ in house prices from super policy ‘in the short term’ | Australian election 2022

Paul Karp has already fact checked the Coalition’s super scheme for first home owners:

Scott Morrison is on the Nine Network now. He is not asked about Jane Hume’s admission the super policy will increased house prices, but he is asked about his sudden urge to change and whether it was sparked by the polls:

No, what I’m simply saying is this the is throughout the course of this campaign I’ve made a number of points.

The first one is that this election is a choice. I’ve said it is a choice about who is best able to run a strong economy. We’ve seen Anthony Albanese, he’s a loose unit on the economy – I think people know that – but then I’m saying this, it’s not just about avoiding the risk of Labor and an inexperienced Labor leader when it comes to the economy, and indeed on national security, it’s about seizing the opportunities. We’ve been setting up for these opportunities. Next Saturday this is not just a reason to vote against Labor and avoid those risks against Labor and avoid those risks – there’s a very good reason to vote Liberal and National because we can seize the opportunities that you’ve been working for, that we’ve been working together for.

… This can be a great period for Australia but under the wrong leadership without the experienced economic management and national security strength, well, it could go the other way. That’s why this choice is so important.

Q: Very quickly, do you have one more miracle in you?

Morrison:

I’ve never stop believing. I never stop believing in Australians and I never stop believing in our future.

Prime minister Scott Morrison at the Liberal party campaign launch on Sunday.
Prime minister Scott Morrison at the Liberal party campaign launch on Sunday. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Murph is listening to Scott Morrison on ABC radio AM, where the prime minister is trying to move around Jane Hume’s admission the super dip in policy will see house prices increase “in the short term”.

Meanwhile on AM with @SabraLane the PM is stepping around the impact of his super policy on prices. Hume says short term bump. Morrison says risks have been mitigated #auspol @AmyRemeikis

— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) May 15, 2022

Scott Morrison has continued his “I know I need to change” tour, which has grabbed him headlines since his admission on Friday.

Here he was on the Seven network:

I’m just being honest with people, it’s required a lot of strength to take Australia through [the pandemic] and we are continuing to [need] that strength but what will change in the next few years is opportunities will [increase], there will still be this challenges and threats will be there and I know how to handle those, but also to realise those opportunities will require that strong economy.

But it looks like he just made the change after seeing he was dropping in the polls?

Morrison:

I don’t agree with that, we go into this next phase and we will find an extra gear, we have the extra gear and we know how to hit it and have been preparing for it.

Jane Hume was also asked about Morrison 2.0, after Scott Morrison also reverse ferreted on his own leadership late last week, admitting he needed to change his leadership style:

We needed a leader that we could look to, for certainty, for stability, for security, and that’s exactly what he’s given us.

And in fact, now on the other side of this pandemic, we’re looking at unemployment rates of only around 4% and looking down growth rates that are the envy of the advanced economy, vaccination, vaccination rates higher than most other nations. You know, we’re actually in an extraordinarily good position.

But now as he said, it’s time for gear change.

And he wants to demonstrate to the Australian people that he is listening, that he that he is listening to their concerns.

And frankly, this housing policy is a really good example of a prime minister that is listening to the concerns of Australians.

The prime minister also said he was “listening” when it came to what women were saying in March 2021. You can judge how that went.

Coalition minister admits ‘bump’ in house prices from super policy ‘in the short term’

Liberal MP and superannuation minister Jane Hume has been sent out to sell the dip into super housing policy this morning and defend how Coalition MPs from John Howard to Mathias Cormann to Malcolm Turnbull to Anne Ruston and Peter Dutton have previously argued allowing people to access their super for a housing deposit was junk policy.

Asked about Turnbull specifically on ABC radio RN Breakfast, Hume plays the wealth card:

Why is it always people that own their own house – that actually own pretty big houses – that object to people, to young people who are getting an opportunity to get their first step?

… They’re allowed to have their opinions but why not help people that want to get on the housing ladder for the first time? Just this morning? I was out here in the ABC studios. I was talking to a couple of young people that work here that think this is a fantastic policy. Because they’ve already been saving for their houses for years and years, and this will help them just get across the line to help them make that decision.

Liberal senator Jane Hume.
Liberal senator Jane Hume. Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAP

Hume also admits that yes, housing prices will increase, at least in the short term:

I would imagine that there would be a lot of people that bring forward their decision to buy a house. So I would imagine in the short term, you might see a bump in house prices. But that doesn’t play out the long-term benefits of more home ownership, fewer people relying on rent.

Asked if she was comfortable with driving up house prices even further, Hume says:

I’m very comfortable with having more Australians owning their own home sooner, having the financial certainty and security of owning their own home.

Hume was asked if the government had done modelling on how the policy will impact the housing market and know by how much it will drive up prices:

Well, we know that people will probably bring forward some of their decisions to buy a house earlier.

… And for that reason it will probably push housing prices up temporarily but the long-term effects … of the housing market … of having more people in the housing market …

But does she know by how much?

You know that there are too many factors that play into the prices of housing temporarily and permanently. We know that interest rates play a big effect, housing supply plays an enormous effect and that’s why it’s important to play all ends, the demand side as well as the supply side and then interest rates on top of that.

What we know is that there are thousands and thousands of Australians out there that can’t get into their first home, not because they’re not credit worthy, not because they don’t have good incomes, not because they don’t have good jobs, because they can’t put together a deposit. This is how they access their own savings. Not the superfund savings, not the government’s, they access their own savings to get into the housing market for the first time.

You’ll hear a lot this week about “soft” voters and the polls being softer than they appear.

What does that mean? It means people can change their mind. They may have told pollsters they intend on voting one way, but they aren’t set on it. So this week matters to both campaigns.

Good morning

We’ve made it to the final week.

The “new” Scott Morrison has set up a housing battle in the dying days of the campaign, reverse ferreting on allowing people access to their super to help with their housing deposit, something numerous Coalition MPs had argued was bad policy (which it is) for years.

It was only two short weeks ago Morrison was warning Labor’s shared equity policy – a scheme open to just 10,000 first home owners – would drive up prices. Now allowing every one up to $50,000 from their super is apparently fine. Economists have already argued it is not, and will increase house prices, but Morrison has his fight for the final week.

I wasn’t aware of this quote from Mathias Cormann in 2014 – he was Finance Minister back then, now he is the boss of the OECD, one of the bastions of economic orthodoxy. And on this, he is absolutely right! pic.twitter.com/09XLt6yt1f

— Saul Eslake (@SaulEslake) May 15, 2022

Morrison 2.0 (he is a changed man as of Friday) will spend the final five days of this campaign attempting to win back anyone who may be nervously thinking of parking their vote elsewhere because of their personal dislike of him.

Jane Hume was the Coalition spokesperson this morning, and she was prepared with the lines. Asked how going to Hawaii during the bushfires was “fixing things”, Hume said:

I think that everybody knows that he has apologised for that, he said he shouldn’t have done that. But the global pandemic was a real – that’s the test of a man, and he has stepped up and been a leader at a time when we needed him most, when there was incredible financial uncertainty, incredible uncertainty around our health, and our outcomes speak for themselves.

Labor is in Western Australia, with Anthony Albanese working to shore up as many seats out west as possible as he continues trying to find Labor’s pathway to a win.

But concern progressive independents could split the vote, particularly in places like the ACT continues, as Murph reports:

We’ll bring you the blow by blow of the day. Paul Karp is travelling with Morrison, while Josh Butler is with Albanese, with Murph, Sarah Martin and Daniel Hurst making sense of what is happening from Canberra.

You have Amy Remeikis on the blog for most of the day.

Ready?

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