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Victoria election 2022 report card, week one: assault advertisements, practice guarantees and the price of dwelling | Victoria state election 2022

Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy speaks to media on Friday, 4 November, 2022.

Margaret Simons, journalist and tutorial

Each main events have launched competing well being and public transport guarantees. Are voters sitting down with calculators figuring out if they’re higher off below Matthew Man’s promise to halve V/Line ticket costs and cap Melbourne public transport fares, or Daniel Andrews’ promise to cap V/Line fares? I doubt it.

I additionally doubt they’re following the element of competing well being guarantees. Though the commitments are substantial, neither aspect is making a decisive impression in voters’ minds.

Among the many odd voters I’ve spoken to, the one election promise to have registered was Andrews’ announcement final week to convey again the State Electrical energy Fee and generate government-owned renewable vitality.

A shadow fell throughout the marketing campaign late within the week when the Age reported it had been prevented by an after-hours injunction from revealing draft findings of an investigation by the Unbiased Broad-based Anti-Corruption Fee. On Friday, tiptoeing across the authorized points after failing to get the injunction overturned, it reported that the investigation involved two grants price $3.4m to the Well being Employees Union. Andrews has been caught up in quite a lot of Ibac inquiries, however that is the primary to be straight inspecting his conduct, the Age reported.

In the meantime, we noticed aggressive dirt-throwing about outdated automobile accidents. Labor launched an assault advert that includes the drink-driving outgoing MP Tim Smith. The Herald Solar – venue of alternative for Daniel Andrews assault jobs – dug up the 2013 accident through which the Andrews household Ford Territory collided with a teenage bike rider, Ryan Meuleman. Andrews’ spouse, Catherine, was driving. The information was that Meuleman has engaged attorneys and is disputing the beforehand accepted account of the crash. The report has been heavy on innuendo and brief on specifics.

Most Victorians I spoke to shrugged this brouhaha off. It’s taken as a right that the Herald Solar is partisan, and that limits its affect.

Who received the week: Daniel Andrews, however solely as a result of he was already forward and nothing occurred to vary that. Given the late breaking information concerning the Ibac inquiry, which will change quick.

This week’s dux: Current and former federal governments which, in a welter of well being guarantees by either side, have escaped questioning about their function in long-term underfunding of hospitals.

This week’s dunce: Public servants within the Division of Transport who complied with a authorities request to value the opposition’s public transport promise. All of us lose when the general public service is politicised. Have division secretaries forgotten say “no minister”?

Tony Barry, Redbridge pollster and former Liberal get together exec

The beginning of the (official) state election marketing campaign was immediately overshadowed by the RBA’s announcement of one other 25-point improve to the money fee.

This information got here only a week after the Albanese authorities’s first finances, the place they revealed that Australians can anticipate a 56% improve on vitality payments within the coming two years.

Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy speaks to media on Friday, 4 November, 2022.
Victorian opposition chief Matthew Man speaks to media on Friday, 4 November, 2022. {Photograph}: Diego Fedele/AAP

While most cost-of-living pressures are influenced by federal and international elements, the difficulty is now so pervasive it’s affecting the state political panorama – which is at all times harmful for an incumbent.

The politics of grievance, which Anthony Albanese used so successfully in opposition, stays Daniel Andrews’ greatest vulnerability in coming weeks as a result of voters hardly ever reward governments after they really feel poorer and colder.

However because the current Resolve ballot confirmed, Labor at present enjoys a really comfy lead over the Coalition. Not all hope is misplaced for the Coalition although, with the identical ballot additionally exhibiting a 27% comfortable vote.

The chance for the Coalition marketing campaign is to influence these folks to both vote for the Coalition or use their vote tactically to ship Andrews a message.

If Liberal get together marketing campaign headquarters can produce a very good artistic execution, and if their media purchase offers them adequate repetition and attain, we’d see a better contest than the polls point out. However with somewhat over every week earlier than pre-polls open, the Liberal marketing campaign is quick operating out of runway.

Who received the week: A hesitant begin from each campaigns however with breaking reviews about an Ibac investigation involving the premier’s workplace, it might be the November shock that adjustments the course of the election.

This week’s dux: Netball Australia for touchdown a lazy $15 million authorities sponsorship deal at a time of file state authorities deficit and debt.

This week’s dunce: Albanese is the loser because it turns into more and more obvious that state politics is now an infinite coverage public sale. Federal fiscal restraint received’t be a lot good if the states proceed racking up debt.

In a marketing campaign technique paying homage to my battle to be college captain in 12 months 6 (my opponent stated he’d make the canteen meals free, I stated I’d have the costs slashed), each Labor and the Coalition are pledging to cut back the price of regional journey.

Excellent news for out of city commuters and for my annual tour to Bendigo Artwork Gallery. It would even assist take some further automobiles off the street and, let’s face it, any little bit helps at this stage within the struggle in opposition to local weather change.

The opposition has gone a step additional and introduced a coverage to cap public transport fares in metro Melbourne at simply $2 a day. Absolute cut price however at what value? Humorous you must ask that – the general public service took the freedom of crunching some numbers, estimating {that a} $2 cap would value $900m greater than the Coalition has promised. Coalition MPs have been fuming concerning the public servants’ actions. Who wants Love Island while you’ve acquired this drama to look at unfold?

At this stage of campaigning, all focus is on the hovering value of dwelling, an space that holds a whole lot of curiosity, for good purpose. It’s shaping up because the core concern of the marketing campaign. I, for one, am wanting ahead to kicking again within the quiet carriage and heading out to regional Victoria for a day with a cut price basement ticket in hand.

In case you’re questioning, my opponent received college captain and he was unable to make the canteen meals free.

Who received the week: Regional journey. Right here’s a direct quote from the V/Line: “why is everybody obsessive about me?”

This week’s dux: The Victorian Greens, for launching a plan to section out pokies throughout the state.

This week’s dunce: The Coalition, for upsetting the Victorian Ambulance Union through the use of a Nineteen Seventies ambulance with “Ditch Dan” written on it as a substitute of a marketing campaign bus, indicating they should resuscitate their technique (cough).

  • Dr Margaret Simons is a board member of the Scott Belief, the core function of which is to safe the monetary place and editorial independence of the Guardian.